I warned for weeks. And now 4.55% 10 yr is back again. One of my three harbingers for risk off
Three harbingers
Yields and 4.5% (now above and not good
Breadth new highs vs new lows (still ok)
Mag 7 and leadership to stay above 50 day ma
only Apple and Tesla are below 50
*change in two of the three would signal a trend change to me
Biden said rate cuts might be delayed until July.
Fomc hawkish
Balance areas
Why do moving avgs work? Same reason traffic lights work. Enough people adhere to them.
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Show Notes
Summary of the day
10:30am Looks risky to go long here
9:40am NVDA fought admirably
8:30am CPI Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected (3.4)
Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecasted an increase of 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year on year
Markets initial reaction is risk off.
$SPY $NVDA $DXY /GC #GOLD
Breadth
92 new highs
294 new lows
15% advancing 82% declining
51% below 50 day ma
37% below the 200 day ma
Stuck out
10 yr yield
Strong
Weak
What to watch
Watch mag 7
Watch yields
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